Probabilistic Forecasts

How to set realistic expectations with stakeholders

Dec 20, 2023, 5:00 – 5:45 PM


Key Themes

Career DevelopmentEnterprise/Business Solutions

About this event

Have you ever taken on as assignment and been asked “When will it be done”? Think about

how many times your answer has actually been right. Or perhaps, how many times you have

had to perform heroics to get it done to meet the expectation. The truth is we really do not

know, at least not with 100% certainty. But there are things we can do to improve the accuracy

of the answer to this question.

This talk will help attendees create probabilistic forecasts. We will explain what these forecasts

are and why we want to use them. We will discuss the metrics and tools available to us. We

will cover forecasting for one work item as well as forecasting for multiple work items or even

for a roadmap of items.

We will also discuss ways of working which will make our work much more predictable and how

to manage our work once it is underway. If you are working solo or as part of a team, the

content from this presentation will help set more realistic expectations with leaders,

customers, and stakeholders.


1. Intro

2. When will it be done?

3. Flow metrics

4. Forecasting for one work item

5. A stable development workflow

6. Work item age

7. Forecasts for multiple work items

8. Forecasting a roadmap

9. Plan to replan

10. Wrap up


  • Grant Marotta


  • Oscar Garcia

    VP of product development


  • oscar garcia

    GDG Organizer

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